2012 Presidential Candidate Newt Gingrich: The Republican's Titanic

from the curmudgeon's desk: GA Anderson

Is 2012 Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich the Republican Party's Titanic if he is their chosen nominee? Will he sink the Republican Party with almost all hands on board? Is his past baggage we know about just the tip of the iceberg?

As the Republican political process of choosing a nominee plays out in the debates, personal appearances, and media wars, candidate Newt Gingrich has surged to front runner status. But is it a position he can hold? With the multiple televised debates working as a screening process, and the media scoring and forecasting the winners and losers of each one, there seems to be a new front runner every week.

First it was Bachmann, then Romney, then Rick Perry, then Herman Cain, and now Newt Gingrich. With so many choices, and so many changes, both the media and opposing candidate focus idles along on cruise-control, waiting for the final shake-out before shifting into the high gear of investigative digging. Can Newt survive the scrutiny?

Portraying himself as the Washington insider that isn't, Newt's message is one that seems to be resonating with Republican and conservative voters. The broad brush of Mr. Gingrich's platform is that Washington is broken and he has the experience, knowledge, and plans to fix it. His concept is simple - the Democrats, both President Obama and Congressional members alike, with their liberal ideas and social program spending, are taking the nation in the direction of Socialism, and creating a national debt that will drive the country into bankruptcy. These are also the views of the majority of conservative Americans.

His political resume' is not unimpressive. He was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1978, and held the seat as Georgia's representative until 1999. In 1989 he ascended to the position of House Minority Whip, which he held until his elevation to Speaker of the House in 1995. A powerful leadership role he held until 1999. He is also credited as being the architect of the Republican "Contract with America" - the platform that propelled the Republican Party's success in the 1994 congressional election. Newt was was the "face" of the Republican charge that returned congressional control to the Republicans after 40 years of Democrat control.

As the "poster boy" of the Republican party resurgence, then Speaker of the House Gingrich was chosen as Time magazine's 1995 Man of the Year.

Newt's personal and private professional resume' is no less impressive. He has a B.A. and an M.A. in History from Emory University, and a Ph.D. in European History from Tulane University, and was a college professor at West Georgia College from 1970 - 1978. Candidate Gingrich frequently refers to his historical knowledge as an asset that gives him a unique perspective of past political plan's successes and failures - against which he can judge the merits and drawbacks of current political proposals.

Since leaving Congress in 1999, he has remained active in politics, joining think-tanks, serving on commissions, starting centers of study, and starting a political advisory and consulting business. The fact that he assiduously avoided the label of lobbyist in his activities may have been the indicator that he wasn't finished with elected politics.

That is the public and professional Newt Gingrich.

Whether you call them skeletons in the closet, or political baggage, most politicians have issues that they would rather not see aired in public, and Newt Gingrich is no different, but could Newt's political baggage be more than a few skeletons? Could what the public knows now be just the tip of the iceberg? When the election race is narrowed to one nominee, and the gloves come off, could Newt's personal and political skeletons turn out to be more like the huge part of the iceberg that you don't see until it's too late? The part that gashes the hull of the Republican ship and sends it to the bottom?

Politically speaking...

Mr. Gingrich's political closet, though not overrun with skeletons, has a couple real monsters. The largest of which is that his party blamed him for their 1998 congressional defeats - they lost five seats in the House. the worst party loss in over 60 years. Attributing the loss to Gingrich's efforts to remove Democrat President Clinton from office - the politics of the effort being so visceral that they alienated Republican voters, and Newt's caustic and often-described arrogant leadership style, the subsequent rebellion in the Republican caucus left him no choice but to resign his leadership role as Speaker of the House. In what most deem "typical Newt," he also announced he would be leaving Congress - one day after being elected to his 11^th term, and he parted with this statement:

"I'm willing to lead but I'm not willing to preside over people who are cannibals. My only fear would be that if I tried to stay, it would just overshadow whoever my successor is."

That is another of his skeletons, both political and private - he is perceived as arrogant, and he is not shy about displaying it. This was a major fault in his political leadership style, and could also be a huge voter turn-off as he spends more time in the glare of scrutiny and questioning that is sure to accompany his Republican candidate front-runner status. Most politicians try to portray themselves as "I'm just like you", Newt portrays himself as "I'm smarter than them." It will be up to the voters to decide if they view this as an asset, or a liability.

There are other, smaller, political skeletons in his past, but none that are more serious than any other politician with over 20 years in office would have. He has issues he could be challenged as "flip-flopping" on. He had political alliances that weren't in line with the conservative platform of the Republican party - like sitting with Nancy Pelosi in support of Global Warming initiatives, that one will see a lot of airtime this election, and others that were less public, or serious, but will still be campaign fodder for his opponents.

Politically, and professionally, Mr. Gingrich will be taking a lot of hits on these issues, and others, but none seem to be destined as fatal wounds. It is probable that the voting public will perceive these attack issues as just more political tactics - just something to be expected in an election race. If Newt is lucky, that is.

Personally speaking... Moral Integrity, and Honesty of Character

Among political pundits and forecasters, the Democrat Party and its power operatives, and even many in Republican circles, it is almost universally agreed that President Obama and the Democrats would rather run against Gingrich than Romney, the leading Republican candidate for the Party's presidential nomination. Everyone sees Newt as the easier target.

Taking what would appear the least bad first... Honesty of Character

The flip-flops, and the Nancy Pelosi Global Warming commercial. These will certainly be top-shelf targets after the nomination, if he gets it, because they already are being used by some of the other Republican nomination contestants, but they are sure to be much more targeted once the Democrat political machine fires up.

Mr. Gingrich explains these as things he has learned from. He has matured. Those issues were over 13 years ago, and he has seen the naivety of those positions. A rationalization often used by politicians to explain poor decisions and positions of their early adult and formative political years. But as more than one pundit has pointed out, 13 years ago Newt was 55, not exactly the formative years of early adulthood, or the learning years of a new and naive young politician. He had been in politics at least 15 years, or longer depending on the issue being addressed, and 55 is not generally seen as an age when ideas, concepts, and principles are being formed. At 55 most adults know who they are and what they believe in.

This could be a big and damaging target when the big guns come out.

His 10-year association with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, from which he received $1.6 million dollars in payments, is another easy target for the opposition, both from the Republican Party candidates now in the contest for their Party's nomination, and for the Democrats in the final election race process. What could be even more damaging than the association and payments, might be Newt's proffered defensive explanations. He did not technically act as a lobbyist for them - he approached no members of Congress on their behalf, and he solicited no meetings or get-togethers that would facilitate promotion of Fannie or Freddie's interests. He merely offered his advise and expertise as a historian to help them in forming and making management decisions relative to their operations. The contortions needed to accept these explanations are directly related to how badly you want to support Newt Gingrich. To say these explanations are an incredulous attempt at distinction, would be stating the obvious.

The berg below the surface... Moral Integrity

The assertion that Candidate Gingrich lacks the moral integrity to hold any elected office, much less that of the Presidency, may just be the fatal blow, the submerged mass of the iceberg that sinks the Republican Party if Newt Gingrich gets the Party's nomination.

Although it is, or should be important to any voter, regardless of their political leanings, conservative voters take it especially serious - moral integrity. From religious affiliation to social values, the one personal characteristic that most conservatives demand is moral integrity. If you have that, they are willing to think about other perceived failings, but if you are demonstrated to lack moral fiber and integrity - you're dead. And so are those that brought you to the show. Candidate Gingrich has some very serious issues in this department.

Gingrich has been married three times, his first one, in 1962, lasted 18 years and produced two daughters. In the later years of the marriage, Mr. Gingrich became involved in an affair with another woman, and in 1980 he filed for divorce. Although Mr. Gingrich denies it, a commonly accepted version of events portray him as visiting his cancer-stricken first wife's hospital bedside to discuss and finalize the details of their divorce. True or not, that is a charge that will be publicly displayed. The combined images of him cheating on a wife with cancer, and then trying to settle the divorce details at her hospital bedside will be the ugly picture that his opponents will make sure the public gets.

His second marriage came in 1981, and once again he cheated on his wife by having another affair, this time with a House staffer who was 23 years his junior. But it gets worse. This affair continued through the 1990's, the same period of time when Mr. Gingrich was excoriating President Clinton for his affair with Monica Lewinsky - a very public and graphic battle that played out daily in both print and TV media. Gingrich even went so far as to drag his Party into to a full-frontal assault to have President Clinton removed from office over the Lewinsky Affair.

And during the entire process, Mr. Gingrich was cheating on his wife and having an affair of his own with a young staffer. The more moderate critics will probably use euphemisms like; "the pot calling the kettle black," but you can be sure there will be other critics with no such restraint. Charges of hypocrite, leach, and scumbag will probably be flooding the airwaves and print media - right up until Nominee Gingrich loses the election, or is forced out of the race after the nomination, leaving the Republicans to scramble for a sub.

Mr. Gingrich's third marriage was to that staffer, and they remain married to this date. In an early primary race interview he was asked about his past infidelities, and his response was;

"There's no question at times in my life, partially driven by how passionately I felt about this country, that I worked too hard and things happened in my life that were not appropriate."

Unfortunately even this mia culpa seems to once again point the blame at external forces, rather than internal fallacies. A distinction it appears he hopes the American voter won't make.

As this curmudgeon drinks his coffee, and studies the tea leaves of his partner's cup of tea, the following scenario is the one most likely to unfold.

Even with the large selection of Republican candidates, none have run away with the Conservative's vote. None seem to be just what the voters are looking for. Romney has stayed in the forefront, others have surged and faded, but none have grabbed the voter's hearts - yet. After so many debates, points, counter-points, plans, new ideas, and promises, the Conservative voter is both exasperated and desperate. They are going to latch on to the message, and not the man, (or woman). At this, getting to be late, stage of the game, Newt's message is the one that makes sense to them. He may be their choice.

The primary race for the Republican nomination will get dirty. Up to a point the Republican candidates will try to refrain from going after each other with bared teeth. The ads will get negative, and the accusations will fly, but they will almost certainly be politically focused - on stands and issues. They will probably not fall to the level of nasty personal attacks that delve into the infidelity and moral integrity issues. Which will be a mistake, because without addressing those issues in the primary nomination process, the public will have a false image of Newt Gingrich. And in this political environment where too many voters face the choice of holding their noses, or holding their principles - when they cast their ballots, Newt Gingrich's message might be just appealing enough to get him the nomination.

That is when the Republican Titanic turns into the iceberg. After the nomination, when it is down to a one-on-one race, the Democrats will jump in with bared teeth and sharpened blades. The honesty of character issues will be the jabs, but the knock-out punch will use the marital infidelities and the hypocritical attacks on Clinton to reduce Gingrich to a bloody political mass that the American voters will step around as they enter the voting booths to contribute to the landslide victory of President Obama's election to a second term.

The Republican Party will be damaged far worse than it was from the Nixon presidency, but America will be changed forever. Whether that will be a change for the better, or the worse, will be determined by your vision of what America should be.

Maybe.

It's also possible that the change will judged by the world too. Will America remain the world's symbol of freedom and individual achievement, or will we become just part of the crowd?

• GA Anderson - on Politics

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